Election Notes: In Minnesota, one Kerry Elector voted for John Edwards (President) and John Edwards (Vice President) Electoral Vote Map Note: there is no implied geographical significance as to the location of the shaded areas for Minnesota's split electoral votes. Each of them employed a panel approach to measurement by recontacting previous survey respondents who watched the debates. After the hand count, the sample is fed into the tabulator. In 2004, however, the issue received increased attention. There are two historical measures of the accuracy of preelection polls and a new method that has been proposed because it has advantages over both of them. The Bush campaign also courted the so-called "Hispanic vote." In Ohio, some precincts had too few machines, causing long waiting times, while others had many machines per registered voters. All candidates involved in polling are John Kerry, against incumbent President George W. Bush, 5 electoral votes(Republican in 1996)(Republican in 2000), 3 electoral votes(Republican in 1996)(Republican in 2000), 10 electoral votes(Democrat in 1996)(Republican in 2000), 6 electoral votes(Democrat in 1996)(Republican in 2000), 55 electoral votes(Democrat in 1996)(Democrat in 2000), 9 electoral votes(Republican in 1996)(Republican in 2000), 7 electoral votes(Democrat in 1996)(Democrat in 2000), 3 electoral votes(Democrat in 1996)(Democrat in 2000), 27 electoral votes(Democrat in 1996)(Republican in 2000), Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2004, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2004_United_States_presidential_election&oldid=902102160, 2004 United States presidential election by state, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License, This page was last edited on 16 June 2019, at 15:29. It was 5 [percent]. Voters chose 10 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. An excellent summary of the issues raised during the campaign posted after the election can be found at www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/11/lessons_likely_.html. 38%: Female (59%) 54% +2. Among the factors thought to be at work were: the general increase in voter turnout; a particular increase in first-time voters whose processing required more time; and confusion about the providing of provisional ballots, which many states had never used before. The values of the three measures for each poll are presented in table 1, and they are summarized historically in table 2 for Mosteller Measures 3 and 5. You get it down with a good message. , Aside from such official actions, there were disputes about other voter registration activities. (+1) 202-419-4300 | Main A post-election lawsuit brought by the NAACP, the People for the American Way Foundation, and other organizations resulted in a settlement in 2002 in which the state agreed to restore eligible voters to the rolls and take other steps to improve election procedures. A Pew Research Center analysis shows that in the majority […]. , An analysis of Florida voter rolls in December 2004 alleged that over four registered voters had names that also appeared in a Social Security database of death claims, according to the Chicago Tribune. These firms are not included in this analysis because they interview by computer over the telephone without a human interface, and specific respondent selection cannot be assured. "It was clear to us that people wanted stability in leadership, [they] wanted stability in politics. Kennedy and Traugott (2004) have developed a relatively standardized approach to producing such an estimate that relies upon a search of the Roper Center’s iPOLL database for occurrences of the standard “trial heat” question that asks: “If the election were held today. The American electoral system is entering a period of dynamic technological change with the passage of the Help America Vote Act of 2002. The most commonly used measures have been Mosteller Measure 3, the average absolute difference between the poll estimate for each of the leading candidates in the final estimate, and Measure 5, the absolute value of the difference between the margin separating the two leading candidates in the poll and the difference in their margins in the actual vote (Mitofsky 1998; Traugott 2001). Saletan, William, David Kenner, and Louisa Herron Thomas. If there is no discrepancy, the remaining ballots can be counted by the machine. Overall, it was a very good showing for the preelection polls.  It was only the second Congressional objection to an entire state's electoral delegation in U.S. history; the first instance was in 1877, when all the electors from Florida, Louisiana, and South Carolina, and one from Oregon—twenty in all—were challenged. The voter completes a written ballot, which is placed in a sealed envelope. (+1) 202-419-4372 | Media Inquiries. On Election Day, the Bush margin over Kerry in the popular vote was 2.4 percentage points, although rounded to whole percentage points as poll results are typically reported, it might look like three percentage points.6 Eighteen of the poll estimates were within the range of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points (13 showing Bush ahead, two with ties, and five showing Kerry ahead). , A New York Daily News article alleged 46,000 people were registered to vote in both New York City and Florida. Erikson, Robert S., Costas Panagopoulos, and Christopher Wlezien. The exact question wording was: “Who, in your opinion, won the debate?” Interviews were taken the night of the debate. The summary also suggests that CBS’s “uncommitted” voters generally evaluated Kerry more favorably than the samples of registered or likely voters. There was generally less attention paid to the Senate and House elections and to various state races, but some of them were also questioned, especially the gubernatorial election in Washington, which was decided by less than 0.01% and involved several recounts and lawsuits. It furthers the University's objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide, This PDF is available to Subscribers Only. : About the American Association for Public Opinion Research, Erikson, Panagopoulos, and Wlezien (2004), www.MoveOn.org/content/pdfs/Final-Gallup-Ad.pdf, http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/233.pdf, http://abcnews.go.com/images/pdf/responserates.pdf, http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/PollVault/story?id=43943, www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/09/28/opinion/polls/main646125.shtml, http://gallup.com/poll/content/default.aspx?ci=12052, www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/11/lessons_likely_.html, www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/09/how_do_pollster_1.html, www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1244005/posts, http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2004/10/11/daily46.html, www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/10/04/opinion/polls/main647342.shtml, www.bepress.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/forum/vol2/iss4/art1, http://elections.gmu.edu/voter_turnout.htm, http://election04.ssrc.org/research/ExitPollReport031005.pdf, Receive exclusive offers and updates from Oxford Academic, George Washington University Battleground, Copyright © 2020 American Association for Public Opinion Research.